Posts tagged ‘personal finance’

June Newsletter – Prices Paid for U.S. Stocks Continue to Balloon

Social Security Trustees Report on Fund Status

Disability Insurance “Trust Fund” projected to deplete in 2016

6.13 Short Range OASI and DI Combined Trust Fund RatioOld-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance (commonly referred to as Social Security) is providing benefit payments to about 40 million retired workers, 6 million survivors of deceased workers and 11 million disabled workers and dependents of disabled workers. Almost all of us look to Social Security as a significant part of our future retirement income.

There are two separate “trust funds” dedicated to the programs, one for the “OASI” portion (Social Security) and one for the “DI” (disability insurance).

6.13 OASDI Income, Cost, and Expenditures as Percentages of Taxable Payroll

All taxes levied by the government for these programs are credited to the funds, and all benefits and costs are paid by them. Excess funds are invested and earn income.

Social Security’s costs now exceed combined income from taxes and investments; a trend projected to continue through 2022 and beyond. This means they are drawing down the trust funds that have been built up over time.

OASI Trust Fund is estimated to be depleted in 2033. After that, Social Security will have to rely exclusively on taxes for funding each year, which, if left unchanged, will provide 77% of scheduled benefits.

DI Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in 2016. That’s 3 years! The DI program cost has exceeded non-interest income since 2005.

Will Social Security Go Away? It is highly unlikely that we would allow the government to go back on the vast majority of promises and commitments made to date. However, total Social Security liability has reached $16.4 trillion, and total U.S. unfunded liabilities (Social Security, Prescription Drugs, and Medicare) have reached $124 trillion, nearly $1.1 million per taxpayer. It is mathematically impossible to meet these unfunded obligations without significant changes in future tax revenue plans or benefit promises to future recipients.

Prices Paid for U.S. Stocks Continue to Balloon

Downside risk at historical levels

Another month of gains for U.S. stocks distorts even further the level of stock prices and the historical value investors have placed on corporate earnings and dividends.

Let us take a look at just a few of the facts:

  • Sales growth for S&P 500 companies over the last twelve months has been an anemic 1.3%.
  • Operating earnings per share actually fell by 1% from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013.
  • Despite the above, stock “analysts” are projecting S&P earnings growth of 18% by the end of the year and over 26% by the third quarter of next year.

The doubling of stock prices from the market bottom in March, 2009 through the end of May has been accomplished with only a 26% growth in long-term corporate earnings. During that period, we have seen a bubble-like increase of 63% in the prices investors are willing to pay for those earnings. For perspective, if attitudes reverse and investors become overly pessimistic as opposed to overly optimistic, we would see stock prices decline over 40% from current levels.

We are well overdue for some of the risk in this market to be realized. In this environment, when the downside potential is so great, it continues to make little or no sense to chase a few extra percentage points of gains.

Manager of World’s Largest Bond Fund Attacks Ben Bernanke

… Well it’s been five years Mr. Chairman and the real economy has not once over a 12-month period of time grown faster than 2.5%. Perhaps, in addition to a fiscally confused Washington, it’s your policies that may be now part of the problem rather than the solution…

… Perhaps financial markets and real economic growth are more at risk than your calm demeanor would convey.

- William H. Gross, Investment Outlook, June, 2013
www.pimco.com

Speaking of Social Security…

Other than Social Security, there are very few 1935 vintage products still in use…

-Kevin Williamson, The End Is Near and It’s Going to Be Awesome

Click Here to Download the PDF Version

9 Things You Should Know About Social Security

Social SecurityA very good article about Social Security was posted at money.usnews.com that provides a great summary for individuals. The following are some key highlights direct from USNews.com:

    1. You contribute 6.2% of your income: Workers pay 6.2 percent of their earnings into the Social Security system, up to $113,700 in 2013. Employers pay a matching 6.2 percent for each worker. Self-employed workers must contribute 12.4 percent of their income annually.
    2. How your benefit is calculated: Social Security payments are calculated based on your 35 highest-earning years in the workforce, and are also adjusted for inflation. If you don’t have 35 years of earnings, zeros are averaged in for the years you didn’t pay into Social Security.
    3. Your full retirement age: You can collect the full amount of Social Security you have earned at what the Social Security Administration calls your full retirement age, which varies based on your birth year. The full retirement age used to be 65 for people born in 1937 or earlier. But the full retirement age was gradually increased in two-month increments from 65 and two months for people born in 1938 to 65 and 10 months for those born in 1942. The full retirement age is 66 for baby boomers born between 1943 and 1954. It’s scheduled to further increase from 66 and two months for Americans born in 1955 to 66 and 10 months for people born in 1959. And the full retirement age is 67 for everyone born in 1960 or later. Workers who begin receiving Social Security benefits before their full retirement age will receive reduced payments for the rest of their lives.
    4. You get bigger checks if you delay claiming: You can increase your Social Security checks by delaying when you sign up for Social Security. For example, people born in 1943 or later will get 8 percent larger payments for each year they delay claiming after their full retirement age, up until age 70. After age 70, there is no additional benefit to delaying claiming Social Security. “If you’re going to err, err on taking in later,” says William Reichenstein, a Baylor University professor and principal of Social Security Solutions. “The risk of running out of money in your lifetime is obviously greatest if one or both of you live a long time, and if that’s the case, then it pays to wait. You can’t outlive the Social Security benefit.”
    5. Married couples have additional claiming options: Married couples are entitled to claim Social Security based on their own work record, or payments worth up to 50 percent of the higher earner’s benefit. And when one spouse dies, the surviving spouse will receive an amount equal to the higher earner’s benefit. “The higher earner should base his benefits decision on the age he would be when the second spouse dies,” says Reichenstein. “What would probably be the best strategy is for him to wait until he turns 70 because after the death of the first spouse, the survivor keeps the higher benefits.” Ex-spouses are also eligible for Social Security benefits if the marriage lasted at least 10 years.Couples who have reached their full retirement age can even claim spousal payments, and then later switch to payments based on their own work record, which will then be higher due to delayed claiming. “The spouse with the higher salary can file and suspend and the other could receive 50 percent of that one’s benefit for four years and then still get the delayed retirement credit,” says Jim Blankenship, a certified financial planner for Blankenship Financial Planning in New Berlin, Ill., and author of A Social Security Owner’s Manual.
    6. Payments are adjusted for inflation: Social Security payments are adjusted each year to keep up with inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Since automatic cost-of-living adjustments were added to Social Security in 1975, they have ranged from 14.3 percent in 1980 to zero in 2010 and 2011. 
    7. Electronic payments are now required: Your Social Security check probably won’t come via mail. New Social Security recipients have been required to select an electronic payment option since May 2011, and approximately 93 percent of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments are already directly deposited into a bank or credit union account or loaded onto a prepaid debit card. “It costs the government and ultimately taxpayers a little over a dollar for paper checks and about 10 cents for each electronic transaction,” says Walt Henderson, director of the electronic fund transfer strategy division at the Treasury Department.
    8. You can now view your Social Security statement online: The Social Security Administration has stopped mailing paper Social Security statements to most workers to cut costs. If you want to view your complete earnings history, taxes paid into the system, and get a personalized estimate of your expected payments, you’ll need to create a Social Security online account and log in to view your statement. It’s a good idea to periodically check your statement to make sure your information is being recorded correctly and to make decisions about when to claim Social Security. “I recommend that everyone get in the habit of checking their online statement each year, around their birthday, for example,” says Michael Astrue, the former Commissioner of Social Security. You can also now sign up to receive benefits, change your direct-deposit information, and access a benefit verification letter online.
    9. The trust fund has a projected deficit. The assets in the Social Security trust funds are expected to be exhausted in 2033, according to the Social Security Board of Trustees’ annual report. After that, incoming tax revenue will provide enough income to pay out about three-quarters of promised benefits. “If nothing else is done, certainly payments would be reduced dramatically to just what the tax rolls were bringing in each year, but we can always increase the Social Security tax,” says Blankenship. Possible changes that might correct the problem include tax increases, benefit cuts, or a combination of the two approaches. The trustees found that an immediate payroll tax increase of about 1.3 percent for workers and employers or an immediate benefit reduction of 16.2 percent would both correct the projected deficit and restore the program to solvency for the next 75 years.

Click here to read the article at USNews.com

2013 401k Contribution Limits Increase Slightly

Today the IRS posted the 2013 retirement plan limits, and there are a few increases from 2012. The new limits are as follows:

  • Elective Deferrals for 401k/403b/457: $17,500 (increased from $17,000 in 2012)
  • Catch-Up Contributions for 401k/403b/457: $5,500 (no change)
  • Annual Compensation: $255,000 (increased from $250,000 in 2012)
  • Annual Additions Limit for Defined Contribution Plans: $51,000 (increased from $50,000)
  • Highly Compensated Employees: $115,000 (no change)
  • Key Employee: $165,000 (no change)
  • Social Security Wage Base: $113,700 (increased from $110,000)

Video: Financial Goals Should be Written in Pencil, Not Pen

Our friend Carl Richards of BehaviorGap.com recently posted a video titled, “Do Your Goals Have Too Much Power,” which you can view via the link below. He makes a point similar to a recommendation of one of my favorite radio personalities, Colin Cowherd, makes:

When outlining your life, use a pencil, not a pen.

I find this to be great advice for many different aspects of life, because life will happen, and not always according to our original plan or design. Therefore, we need to have the flexibility to adjust our expectations and goals to the new information and situations we are presented. This flexibility also needs to be applied to financial goals. I have spoken with numerous people that had goals for their retirement, college savings, etc., but based on market dynamics and/or life events, they were not going to be able to meet them. This is where the pencil comes in, as sometimes we have to adjust our goals based on the unforeseeable events of life. Goals are great and can be very helpful, but I think it’s important to find a balance between achieving goals while also enjoying our lives on a day-to-day basis.

Click Here to View the BehaviorGap.com Video

A Mountain Climber’s Perspective on Risk

Imagine you’re a mountaineer about to scale the face of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park. As you hike to the bottom of the face your level of risk to injury is relatively low. You might trip and fall on your hike but any injury is nonetheless negligible. In this situation, your exposure to downside risk is low while your upside potential is high.

As you begin your ascent the amount of downside risk you assume increases with each pull of the hand and push of your leg. As you near the top, you find yourself in a position with an incredible amount of downside risk with limited additional upside potential. Should you slip and fall, risk becomes a reality and you would no doubt be affected by the consequences.

As investors, we all understand that assuming a certain amount of “risk” within our portfolios is largely beneficial in the long run. We understand that increased exposure to risk combines additional volatility in the short run (risk) with greater returns in the long run (reward).

Risk is a fundamental element to our business model. We spend an exceptional amount of time thinking about risk and what implications it has for your assets. We bring this topic of risk up as a means to inform clients regarding our current understanding on the amount of risk in the market place for financial assets and why the level of risk is perceived to be where it is.

Short Term versus Long Term Returns

Stocks behave much differently in the short run then they do in the long run. Stocks in the short run are largely driven by human emotion. Short term reactions to business headlines, market rumors, etc. drive monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns.

Long term total stock returns are the function of two items, corporate dividends and market price changes. Economic growth leads to increased corporate sales, leading to increased corporate profits and corporate dividends. Market price direction is highly dependent on the height of the mountain and your distance from the peak.

Let’s think about our mountain climber as we look at the graph at the bottom left. For a forty plus year period of time, from 1950 through the end of 1993, our mountains never went higher than the top of the red bar. At levels slightly above $25 for every $1 of corporate earnings, investors reached the peak, and the only way to head was down. After 1993, we decided the mountains should be much higher. At one point, our climber went as high as $50 for every $1 of earnings.

We looked at five year total rates of return for the S&P500. Prior to 1994, less than 2% of those five year returns were negative. From 1994 to the present, negative returns were experienced 33% of the time!

We believe we have returned to the lower (and safer) set of mountains we climbed pre-1994. However, we have climbed near the peak of those mountains, and as a result, we see limited upside potential and significant downside risk as we head into 2012.

7 Lies We Tell Ourselves About Saving Money (Video)

Written October 31st, 2011 by
1 Comment »

Recently, I have had some interesting conversations that centered around how we talk ourselves out of saving money. Simply put, we tell ourselves little lies we make up in our head. We end up talking about how we spend money, as if we manage that, saving it is easy. Let’s face it, it’s much more fun to buy something than it is to save, but we all understand there needs to be a balance. Here are some common lies about saving money from an article I find to be very common:

 

  1. I can only save a little bit, so it’s not worth it. Any savings adds up over time, just as spending does. For example, add up how much you have spent on little things like fast food, lattes, etc. on a system like Mint.com. Imagine if you saved half of that…it adds up when you take into account the compounding affects of a 401k. Even adding 1%-2% more in savings makes a big difference, especially if you have 15 years or more before you plan to retire.
  2. I’ll START saving money when I make more money. Just remember, it’s not how much you make, it’s how much you save. I have met with numerous individuals that have larger balances in their accounts than people who make 3-5 times more. It’s about spending less than you make, and then making the most of what you save. Waiting to make more money simply delays the process, and this excuse usually results in finding other ways to spend that raise once you get it.
  3. If I earned more money it would be EASIER to save. Sure, it could be easier, but only assuming that you save it and don’t spend it. Saving money is often the result of understanding what you are spending. Get a handle on your spending using a tool like Mint.com, as it can illustrate where you are spending money that you might be overlooking. It constantly surprises me in my personal spending habits.  
  4. I want to be a good parent, so I need to give money to my kids now so they can have a better life. Not at all true. I know many people who had everything they could have asked for as a kid but have a poor relationship. Bottom line, love your kids (and make sure they know it) while modeling financial responsibility and you could end up with happy kids that may understand the value of a dollar. A better life is about having love in our lives, not what material possessions we have. Ok, I’m getting off my soapbox.
  5. I can always get a loan if things go wrong. Danger! Creating an emergency fund is a vital portion of a financial plan. It’s boring, and meant to be. Keep it in a money market/savings account because everyone needs a ‘tomorrow bucket of money’ just in case. Personal loans? It is a difficult conversation to have with a bank, family, etc. with absolutely no guarantee of receiving it. 
  6. Saving money is all about deprivation.  It’s about responsibility, not deprivation. While I do not recommend ‘depriving’ yourself or your family, I do recommend re-evaluating what we perceive that we need. Depriving means we do not have what we need…but do we really need that latte, pair of shoes for that outfit or new DVD?
  7. Saving money means cutting out all the small fun stuff. Not at all. Just buy less of it and treat yourself every once in a while. I find that I appreciate “treats” more when I do not purchase them as often…or find that I don’t really need/want it in the first place.
We need to understand that money and how we spend it is a highly emotional situation for many people. We constantly justify or simply act on impulse. I used to be a highly impulsive consumer, but have learned to stop and think (at least I am better now than I was) before buying what I think I need/want. Take a look at your spending habits, which directly affect your ability to save, by monitoring it via a tool like Mint.com. Here’s a great little video from our friend Carl at BehaviorGap.com about understanding the emotion of wanting versus needing: 

IRS Contribution Limits for 2012

Today the IRS posted the 2012 retirement plan limits, and for the first time since 2009, they are increasing! The new limits are as follows:

  • Elective Deferrals for 401k/403b/457: $17,000 (increased from $16,500 in 2011)
  • Catch-Up Contributions for 401k/403b/457: Remains at $5,500
  • Annual Compensation: $250,000 (increased from $245,000 in 2011)
  • Annual Additions Limit for Defined Contribution Plans: $50,000 (increased from $49,000)
  • Highly Compensated Employees: $115,000 (increased from $110,000)
  • Key Employee: $165,000 (increased from $160,000)
  • Social Security Wage Base: $110,000 (increased from $106,800)
For those that are seeking to max out their savings, this year provides you just a little more room. That’s good, as you cannot save too much for retirement. 

2011 Dalbar Study Finds That Investors are Still Their Own Worst Enemy

Dalbar Study on NapkinGoing back to the early 2000′s, our friends at Dalbar have been conducting a study to determine whether investors’  investment decisions impacts their investment performance. Unfortunately, it does. In a BIG way. As with every year’s study so far, the results illustrate a big difference in what the S&P 500 gained versus the average equity mutual fund investor. The results of the twenty year numbers ending 12/31/10:

S&P 500 – 9.14%

Average Equity Mutual Fund Investor – 3.27%

The problem is, the 5.87% ‘behavior gap’ is actually an improvement over many years’ results. Additionally, now that many people have gone through the “Dot Com” and “Mortgage Crisis” bubbles, people are learning to avoid some of the behaviors that result from the greed and fear we experienced during those periods. In reality though, we see these harmful behaviors more often than not when working with investors. If we simply remember that human nature can often tell us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time, we can help ourselves and our portfolios.

Download the Free Version of the Study

When Investing, Trusting Your Gut Can Be Bad For Your Health

financial frustration

I believe in trusting my instincts when making decisions. However, when it comes to investment decisions, I have learned firsthand that my gut will often lead me down the wrong path. Many studies and surveys continue to support I am not the only one in that camp. Recently, Scott Bosworth, VP at Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., spoke at the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors conference on the topic of behavioral-finance research to explain some of the mistakes investors make when they ignore asset allocation, otherwise stated as their personal investment recipe.

A whole range of biases color investor thinking, Mr. Bosworth said. Investors become overconfident, think they have more control than they really do, and give themselves way too much credit when things go well and too little of the blame when things go wrong.

“Every study says we are overconfident in a lot of things,” said Mr. Bosworth. “It drives innovation and progress.” But when it comes to investing, relying on investment hunches and beliefs can be deadly, he said. “We find reasons, even if mounting evidence says we are wrong.”

Mr. Bosworth said there is a link between behavioral finance theories and the efficient-markets theory that underlies passive investment and asset allocation models. Financial advisers need to have an understanding of both disciplines in order to handle their customers’ concerns while sticking to the straight and narrow path of passive investing in an appropriate mix of index funds.

“Behavioral finance, how you deal with the client, is more important,” Mr. Bosworth said. “If you can solve that part, help them understand risk and return, and keep them diversified, you have won the biggest part of it.”

Read the Entire Article at InvestmentNews.com (free registration required)

BeManaged May Newsletter: More Equity Gains in April, Valuations are Concerning

newsThe following are some topics covered in this month’s Research Newsletter from the BeManaged Research Department.

  1. Worker Attitudes Toward Retirement Savings Needs
  2. More Equity Gains in April – Valuations are Concerning

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