Posts tagged ‘Asset Allocation’

When Investing, Trusting Your Gut Can Be Bad For Your Health

financial frustration

I believe in trusting my instincts when making decisions. However, when it comes to investment decisions, I have learned firsthand that my gut will often lead me down the wrong path. Many studies and surveys continue to support I am not the only one in that camp. Recently, Scott Bosworth, VP at Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd., spoke at the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors conference on the topic of behavioral-finance research to explain some of the mistakes investors make when they ignore asset allocation, otherwise stated as their personal investment recipe.

A whole range of biases color investor thinking, Mr. Bosworth said. Investors become overconfident, think they have more control than they really do, and give themselves way too much credit when things go well and too little of the blame when things go wrong.

“Every study says we are overconfident in a lot of things,” said Mr. Bosworth. “It drives innovation and progress.” But when it comes to investing, relying on investment hunches and beliefs can be deadly, he said. “We find reasons, even if mounting evidence says we are wrong.”

Mr. Bosworth said there is a link between behavioral finance theories and the efficient-markets theory that underlies passive investment and asset allocation models. Financial advisers need to have an understanding of both disciplines in order to handle their customers’ concerns while sticking to the straight and narrow path of passive investing in an appropriate mix of index funds.

“Behavioral finance, how you deal with the client, is more important,” Mr. Bosworth said. “If you can solve that part, help them understand risk and return, and keep them diversified, you have won the biggest part of it.”

Read the Entire Article at InvestmentNews.com (free registration required)

BeManaged May Newsletter: More Equity Gains in April, Valuations are Concerning

newsThe following are some topics covered in this month’s Research Newsletter from the BeManaged Research Department.

  1. Worker Attitudes Toward Retirement Savings Needs
  2. More Equity Gains in April – Valuations are Concerning

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Survey Reveals 89% of 401k Investors Want Asset Allocation Help

Help ButtonA survey conducted by the Boston Consulting Group found that investors find retirement planning is confusing and 89% want help creating their ‘investment recipe’ (aka asset allocation). Here are the other findings of the 2,600 investors surveyed:

  • 84% want help “calculating and/or creating retirement income”
  • 79% would like an annual review “to set and measure their progress”
  • 48% feel they are “in consult of their retirement plan investments”

“Most Americans are busy with their jobs, their families and their personal pursuits, and say that they don’t have the time or interest to become experts in retirement planning,” said Lynne Ford, CEO of ING Individual Retirement. “The results from our study were clear: Americans want a roadmap to help them navigate to and through retirement.”

Ford added: “As a whole, consumers highly value choice, yet too much can be overwhelming. Consumers also value the control to make their own retirement-planning decisions but want detailed instructions on how to accomplish their financial objectives.”

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5 Participant Success Features to Add to Your 401k Plan

Mouse

Last month, we brought on a new client who was going through a provider change. During our interaction with their employees, we were shocked to find what their old 401k provider DIDN’T offer compared with what their new provider DID. For the sake of full disclosure, we tend to be a little naive in assuming that certain features are a given when it comes to the capabilities of 401k provider websites. That being said, it’s 2011. I can order a burrito from my phone. Thus, the following is a list of basic online tools (in our naive minds) that we have found participants enjoy, and quite frankly expect in today’s digital age:

  1. Online Contribution/Deferral Increases – This functionality is available in a handful of the plans we work with, in which a participant can change the amount they are contributing to their account with a few clicks of the mouse. In our experience, investors are much more likely to increase their contributions if…and this is key…it’s easy to do. In other words, no more getting the form from HR. Contrary to popular belief, a lot of participants want to do the right thing and save, so let’s make it easy for them to do so. The pain-in-the-tail paper forms of old allow the opportunity for too many investors to shrug off saving more due to it being considered a nuisance.
  2. Online Annual Contribution Increase – On the same note as #1, the auto-increase function allows the participant to activate an automatic increase of 1% – 3% at a specific date of their choice. The benefit is that if they forget to increase their savings annually, just as most forget to rebalance their portfolio, the system will automatically do it for them specific to the investor’s preference. Now, if they would just remove the 10% auto-increase contribution cap , but that’s another conversation…
  3. Take-Home Pay Calculator – Whatever you want to call it, it answers the question of “how much will it cost me to increase my contributions?”  If an investor can get a feel for approximately what a contribution increase will cost them from their check, they are much more likely to take action. Times are tough, but this tool helps people understand whether they can ‘afford’ to increase their deferral rate. It doesn’t need to be pretty, just effective. Our favorite is a plain brown box, but it is simple, quick and effective.
  4. Custom Date Portfolio Returns – We have seen some very large plans’ providers that do not offer this feature, and it is kind of stunning. In our own selfish interests, we use this feature to help investors determine their risk/reward objectives during our 1on1 consultations. It is very powerful and another tool that participants simply expect in today’s technology environment. Can a participant see how the amount of risk in their portfolio affected them during the downturn of ’08 and early ’09? When the market began it’s rebound on March 9, 2009 through the end of ’09? We understand this is pretty complex with contributions, but…again…I can order a burrito with my phone. My. Phone.
  5. Basic Diversification of Stocks/Bonds in Portfolio – The vast majority of 401k plans have actively managed mutual funds/investment options available. The underlying mix of stocks, bonds, cash, etc. can and often does change throughout the year. Hence, providing participants an idea of what their underlying basic diversification is of US Stocks, International Stocks, Bonds and Cash is very important so they can better understand their situation. Seeing a list of funds an investor invested in is one thing, providing them some basic information on the make-up of that portfolio is another. This is another feature that we are blown away not to see with some provider sites. NOTE TO PROVIDERS: User percentages, not just hard dollar amounts. Keep. It. Simple.

As you can see, each of these features can greatly benefit participants as well as those trying to help them understand what is or isn’t happening with their retirement account. Give them the tools, and they will act. Are there any we missed that you would add to this list?

Don’t Get Burned – Put More Focus on the Recipe Than the Ingredients

Cayenne Pepper

A few months ago, I made a big pot of chili. I have made my Mom’s recipe my own, and always enjoy how it turns out. However, I incorporated a few new ingredients that time, and the initial result was quite interesting. I discovered an important lesson – I have some learning to do when cooking with cayenne pepper. When I checked it after it had been cooking for a couple of hours, I found it to look and smell like chili. After tasting it however, it was so spicy that I thought  it was molten lava going down my throat.

The same can be true for investing. In 2010, it simply didn’t matter where you invested. Unless you worked really hard to do so, you were not going to lose money last year. That being said, investors have to remember that the recipe is the most important factor to the success of your portfolio, not making big bets with the hottest fund. Year in and year out, the individual returns of asset classes such as Small Cap Growth, Mid-Cap Value, International Large Cap Value, etc. can behave very differently as you can see via the ‘periodic investment table’ below. Thus, predicting which ‘box’ is going to perform the best is purely speculation. Risk and reward still rule investment performance, and having the appropriate dose of cayenne can add great flavor if used correctly, but it can also cause some pain and sweating if used in too large of a dose. Make sure your portfolio’s recipe is appropriate for you, as having too much or too little of a given ingredient can cost you a lot of money.

View the Table at Callan.com

Are You an Investor or a Collector?

Investor v. CollectorOur friend Carl Richards of BehaviorGap.com and the NYTimes.com Bucks blog just wrote an article illustrating how the ‘over diversification’ of portfolios can simply be ‘buying more’ instead of ‘buying different.’ Take a look:

Over- or under-diversifying your investments remains one of the classic behavioral mistakes.

Over-diversification happens when we become collectors of investments instead of simply being investors. Think of the people who buy the mutual funds they read about in Smart Money magazine. Next year they buy the Top 10 Funds recommended by Money magazine. A year later they buy two or three new international funds because that’s what’s on the home page of Forbes.

Before they know it, they have a smorgasbord of unrelated investments, with no cohesive strategy at work. Then there are all of the taxes and transaction costs — and the impact on your life of having to keep track of it all.

For anyone with a portfolio that looks like this, consider a relatively simple suggestion: Each individual component of a portfolio should be there for a reason. Think of each investment that you own as a thread in a larger tapestry.

Being under-diversified is an equally troublesome problem. Under-diversification can take the form of owning only a single stock, or too much of one. For instance, maybe you work at Apple, and you’re convinced that Apple stock can only go up, so you put your life savings into Apple stock. We’ve seen why this choice can be a bad idea; ask anyone who had a lot of stock in A.I.G., Enron, Wachovia or Lehman Brothers.

Many people now know better than to put too much money into a single stock. But I still often meet people who own a number of mutual funds and believe they’re properly diversified. The reality is that fund overlap can leave you heavily invested in a relatively small number of individual stocks.

This happens because many mutual fund managers have similar ideas, or they create funds based on what’s popular at the time. If you look carefully at many of the largest mutual funds (the ones people are most likely to buy), they have significant overlap among the top 10 stock holdings.

Whether you’re under- or over-diversified, you are probably only doing what you thought you were supposed to do. You’ve spent a lot of energy, time and even money trying to pick the right investments. Unfortunately your efforts may have created the exact opposite of what you wanted to accomplish.

Remember, you’re not a collector. You’re an investor. You want stocks (or funds) that get you closer to the financial goals you’ve set for yourself. You also need to make sure that what you own doesn’t expose you to greater risk than you can handle, again based on your goals.

The end result should be a portfolio that reflects those goals, not the collection of magazines on your coffee table.

Read the Entire Article at NYTimes.com

BeManaged October Research Newsletter – Asset Class Correlations and Your Portfolio

newsThe following are some topics covered in this month’s Research Newsletter from John Whaley, CFA, AIF, Director of the BeManaged Research Department.

  1. Third Quarter Ends on Positive Note
  2. Pension Plans Continue Rosy Expectations
  3. Asset Class Correlations and Your Portfolio

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3 Ways to Spot a Bad Investor (Video)

CBS Marketwatch.com just released a short video to help identify whether you, your friend or your advisor is a bad investor. It’s brief, and definitely true. Here you go:

See It on CBS Marketwatch.com

Annual Dalbar Study Shows Investors Are Still Behaving Badly

Dalbar Study on NapkinDalbar releases an annual study gauging the impact of investor behavior on investors’ long term portfolio returns. Our friend Carl Richards of BehaviorGap.com, writing for the NYTimes.com Bucks blog, illustrates the impact of investors’ decisions on their long term portfolio performance via the findings of this year’s study.

Every year the research firm Dalbar does a study that tries to quantify the impact of investor behavior on real-life returns by comparing investors’ earnings to the average investment (using the S&P 500 as a proxy).

The latest study looks at the 20-year period that ended Dec. 31, 2009:

Average investment return = 8.20 percent
Average equity investor return = 3.17 percent

If you had put money into an S&P 500 index fund 20 years ago and just left it there — no buying, no selling, just investing and forgetting about it — you would have earned (minus fees) about 8 percent.

But real people don’t invest that way. We trade. We watch CNBC and listen to Jim Cramer yell. Despite knowing better, we give into the genetic tendency to get more of those things that give us pleasure — buy high — and get rid of things that cause us pain — sell low. We’re just wired that way.

What is really interesting is how little this seems to change over the years. When it comes to investing, the tendency to behave badly is not going away.

So what do we do about it?

1. Admit it. Like any destructive behavior that first step to fixing it is to admit that there is a problem in the first place. Being honest with yourself and reviewing past decisions will help:

Did you get caught up in the tech bubble in 1999?
Real estate in 2006?
Did you sell in 2002, late 2007, or early 2008?

2. Develop a checklist. Then go through that checklist before you make major investment decisions. It works for pilots and doctors. It will help you avoid mistakes in investment behavior, too.

Try writing down the proposed change and then let it sit for 24 hours, or call a trusted friend or adviser and walk them through your thinking before you make the change. Often just hearing yourself explain why you want to make the change will convince you to forget the whole thing.

3. Don’t play. Sometimes the answer might be to take our money and go home. There is nothing that says you have to invest in the stock market to be considered an intelligent human being. It is fine to recognize that it might work better to follow Will Rogers’s advice and focus on the return of your money instead of the return on your money.

The reality is investing successfully is hard. But hopefully by focusing on our behavior, we can close this gap in the next 20 years.

Read Article at the NYTimes.com Bucks Blog

401(k) Investing, Diversification and Asset Allocation – In Plain English

The BeManaged Ingredients and Recipe Investment Analogy

Pizza and IngredientsOver the past number of years I have come to really enjoy cooking. It unknowingly led me to an analogy for investing that is simple to understand and better yet, visual. The analogy, consisting of ingredients and the underlying recipe, has helped hundreds of investors better understand what they can ‘control’ within their 401(k). Furthermore it helps investors understand confusing terms such as “diversification” and “asset allocation” and how they impact the ‘behavior’ of their portfolio.

Step #1 – The Stylebox

The image to the right represents the entire US stock market compartmentalized into nine boxes. The idea is you do not want to compare funds in one box to funds in the other box, as they are each investing in distinctively different types of stocks. The market says diversify, diversify, diversify — but people get confused with what that really means. The visual aspect makes it easier to identify any gaps in your portfolio, would be issues with your portfolio’s diversification. (NOTE: This is ONLY illustrating the US Stock market, so also included is international stocks, bonds and cash. For simplicity sake, we are going to stay focused on the US stock portion of an investor’s portfolio.)

Stylebox - US

Step #2: Diversification / Ingredients

If you look at each of these boxes and the funds inside them as ingredients, diversification is simply making sure you have enough ingredients to complete a recipe. As you can see, funds rarely fit neatly inside their respective ‘box.’ In fact, the vast majority do not. Additionally, even though these are listed as US stock funds, a significant portions of these ingredients can include international stocks, bonds and cash. And finally, just as the Papa John’s commercial says — better ingredients, better portfolio.

Stylebox Diversification Stylebox - Diversified Portfolio
Actual Portfolio         Diversified Portfolio

Step #3: Asset Allocation – The Recipe

Now let’s say we have all of the ingredients we need to cook a pizza crust. Depending on the recipe we use and process used to cook it, the ingredients could result in a pizza crust or — a saltine cracker. We could use the same ingredients, but have two entirely different outcomes.

Investing is no different. In fact, studies have shown over 91% (Brinson, Singer, Beebower, 1991) of the reason for your portfolio’s performance is specific to the recipe used.

Asset Allocation

Therefore, there are reasons your portfolio has behaved the way it has over the past few years. It has to do with the specific ingredients (investment funds) used and the percentage put in each fund. Based on the investor profile you completed, we simply need to create a recipe that fits that specific level of risk. Does that make sense? (I know it doesn’t add up to 100%, the remaining portion is in bonds and international stocks)

Stylebox - Recipe Stylebox - Proper Recipe
Actual Recipe                   Proper Recipe

Decision: Do-It-Yourself, Get the Recipe (Advice), or Have it Cooked For You (Account Management)?

Just because I walk into a fully stocked kitchen with every tool and ingredient I could want, it does NOT make me Bobby Flay. Therefore, having a professional either provide you the recipe (401(k) advice) or simply cook it up for you (401(k) account management) can be better options than trying to do it yourself.

Bobby Flay

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