The Surprising Paradox of Choice in 401k Plans

Written February 1st, 2012 by
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You may have heard about experimental studies that aim to capture the human experience when provided a large variety of options. Consumers today are often bombarded with a very high number of choices when they enter shopping malls, department stores, restaurants, mobile phone stores, etc. It is likely we have all experienced a certain level of paralysis when forced to choose a wine flavor from a menu containing 37 different wine choices. That overwhelming feeling we get when we are introduced to a vast array of choices can bring about discomfort and is ultimately unfavorable.

There seems to have been an accepted dogma among marketers in the past that a greater variety of choice leads to a better customer experience. When waiters place menus at the dinner table with 22 different entrees as opposed to 6, they might think they are doing you a favor by giving you the chance to choose the “perfect” option among several others. However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that perhaps, as humans, we may be better off with only 6 options as opposed to 22. When faced with 22 different options, we may experience a level of anxiety as we jockey between whether we’re in the mood for the filet mignon or the flank steak as opposed to whether or not we’re in the mood for a steak or instead some pasta -an easier choice, no doubt!

Although some may disagree with this notion that a greater number of choices is not beneficial to the consumer, it appears that on an aggregate level, a greater number of choices does reduce customer and user experience and in this case, participation. An interesting study conducted by Psycho-Economist Sheena Lyengar, along with her team of researchers from the Columbia Business School, suggests that greater consumer choices leads to less participation in retirement savings plans. In the study, Sheena and her team surveyed nearly 1 million Americans participating in 650 different retirement plans with regards to their decisions to save for retirement. What they found was a negative correlation between the participation rate among retirees and the amount of funds being offered. In other words, participation rates among consumers being offered 3 funds was in the mid 70’s percentile, while those plans offering nearly 60 funds saw participation rates drop the 60th percentile.

 

Sheena and her team found that as more choices are made available to the consumer (and perhaps you could relate to this) three things happen:

  1. Folks procrastinate even when it goes against their best self-interest
  2. They’re more likely to make worse choices (worse medical choices, financial choices, et cetera)
  3. They’re more likely to make choices that leave them less satisfied

It is important we recognize this as not a sign to give up and forgo saving when faced with an overwhelming amount of choices, but instead as a cue to seek professional help from those offering responsible advice. We live in an age where we are routinely subjected to a large number of options. It is important we recognize this as a possible threat to our well-being and make the appropriate steps to improve the outcome. The old adage that knowledge is power can yet again yield some value as your awareness to this situation should help with future decisions. Understanding that it’s natural to feel overwhelmed when choosing the optimal location for retirement funds should encourage you to take an offensive stance and make the appropriate steps to remedy your anxiety.

Click here to view Sheena’s presentation.

A Mountain Climber’s Perspective on Risk

Imagine you’re a mountaineer about to scale the face of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park. As you hike to the bottom of the face your level of risk to injury is relatively low. You might trip and fall on your hike but any injury is nonetheless negligible. In this situation, your exposure to downside risk is low while your upside potential is high.

As you begin your ascent the amount of downside risk you assume increases with each pull of the hand and push of your leg. As you near the top, you find yourself in a position with an incredible amount of downside risk with limited additional upside potential. Should you slip and fall, risk becomes a reality and you would no doubt be affected by the consequences.

As investors, we all understand that assuming a certain amount of “risk” within our portfolios is largely beneficial in the long run. We understand that increased exposure to risk combines additional volatility in the short run (risk) with greater returns in the long run (reward).

Risk is a fundamental element to our business model. We spend an exceptional amount of time thinking about risk and what implications it has for your assets. We bring this topic of risk up as a means to inform clients regarding our current understanding on the amount of risk in the market place for financial assets and why the level of risk is perceived to be where it is.

Short Term versus Long Term Returns

Stocks behave much differently in the short run then they do in the long run. Stocks in the short run are largely driven by human emotion. Short term reactions to business headlines, market rumors, etc. drive monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns.

Long term total stock returns are the function of two items, corporate dividends and market price changes. Economic growth leads to increased corporate sales, leading to increased corporate profits and corporate dividends. Market price direction is highly dependent on the height of the mountain and your distance from the peak.

Let’s think about our mountain climber as we look at the graph at the bottom left. For a forty plus year period of time, from 1950 through the end of 1993, our mountains never went higher than the top of the red bar. At levels slightly above $25 for every $1 of corporate earnings, investors reached the peak, and the only way to head was down. After 1993, we decided the mountains should be much higher. At one point, our climber went as high as $50 for every $1 of earnings.

We looked at five year total rates of return for the S&P500. Prior to 1994, less than 2% of those five year returns were negative. From 1994 to the present, negative returns were experienced 33% of the time!

We believe we have returned to the lower (and safer) set of mountains we climbed pre-1994. However, we have climbed near the peak of those mountains, and as a result, we see limited upside potential and significant downside risk as we head into 2012.

BeManaged Year End Newsletter – 2011 Was a Treacherous Ride to Nowhere

Conservative Investors Rewarded in 2011
A treacherous ride to nowhere

Pretend for a moment you pulled off your best Rip Van Winkle imitation and slept through 2011. You pick up a “Year in Review” newspaper, and find out:

  • A number of European countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) are close to defaulting on their debt.
  • The United States ran up another $1+ trillion in debt and lost its’ AAA credit rating.
  • Over 13 million Americans remain unemployed. Another 8 ½ million are working only part time because they cannot find full time work.

You would have to believe your investments took a beating. Yet, you open up your retirement plan statement and find out things weren’t quite as bad as you expected.

Nobody made a bundle of money last year. If you owned mostly stocks, and mainly foreign stocks, you lost 4% or more. Conversely, if you emphasized bonds and cash in your assets, you managed to eke out a small gain (1% – 2%) – not enough to meet your long term needs, but enough to protect your principal in anticipation of better times ahead.

We were pleased to see that corporate earnings and dividend payments increased significantly last year. Earnings and dividends provide the basis for long term rates of return that can meet your retirement needs.

On the negative side, we went from historically low interest rates at the beginning of the year to ridiculously low levels today. Savers and retirees are unable to find income producing investments without accepting significant risk.

We remain extremely concerned with subpar growth in our nation’s level of output. If our shift to lower growth rates (which began almost a decade ago), is more permanent than we thought, even conservative projections of 5% long term rates of return will be called into question.

We discuss our thoughts for the next year on the following pages. We enter 2012 the same way we entered 2011, with a very cautious outlook.

Investment Professionals Weigh In on Market Outlook

The CFA Institute recently published their 2012 Global Market Sentiment Survey. The report analyzes responses to a November, 2011 survey of over 58,000 CFA Institute members across the globe. Among the findings:

  • The current global financial crisis has severely impacted market trust and confidence. Almost 80% of U.S. respondents expect this low level of confidence to last at least three more years
  • 52% of survey participants expect the sovereign debt crisis to get worse in 2012
  • Mis-selling of financial products by advisers is perceived to be the most serious issue facing global markets

Globally, 59% of respondents predict that asset classes other than equities will be the top performers in 2012. The majority of U.S. respondents (56%), however, believe the equity markets will outperform other asset classes.
The full Global Market Sentiment Survey for 2012 can be found at the CFA Institute website (www.cfainstitute.org).

2011 Market Returns Mixed
Foreign stocks suffered significant declines

It was indeed a wild ride for the equity markets in 2011. The S&P 500 ended at almost exactly the same price it began the year – its only return came from the 2.11% dividend paid by S&P 500 companies. Monthly returns ranged from a decline of 7.0% in September (completing five straight months of negative market returns), to an increase of 10.9% in October.

Stock markets worldwide generated negative returns for the first time in three years. Investors who utilize both domestic and foreign stock funds have lost money over the last five years. Fortunately, bond funds have generated 6.5% gains annually since 2006, and cash has helped with a 1.4% compound return.

The average market strategist interviewed by Barron’s at the beginning of 2011 predicted a gain of 11% for the markets last year. Also, they collectively predicted that stocks would outperform bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries.
The 2012 survey predicts a market gain of 11.5%. Two of the ten strategists are predicting flat to down markets, unlike 2011, where almost all predicted gains.

Worldwide Sovereign Debt at Unmanageable Levels
Time to laugh at ourselves…if only it were funny

 

Other incredible statistics from usdebtclock.org:

  • Total Federal/State/Local spending has exceeded $7.0 trillion dollars. That represents 46.7% of US Gross Domestic Product.
  • Total US Debt (households, businesses, governments and financial institutions) has reached $56.5 trillion ($683,522 debt per family).
  • US Unfunded Liabilities (promises made for Social Security, prescription drugs and Medicare, now exceeds $117 trillion, more than $1 million for each taxpayer.
  • Hayman Capital Management provides a concise view of the debt situation for the rest of the world :
  • Total global credit market debt has grown at a compound rate of 11% since 2002. Global real gross domestic product has grown only 4% during that same period.
  • Total credit market debt is currently 310% of GDP (US Debt to GDP just surpassed 100% for the first time).

According to Hayman, “Throughout history, whenever total credit market debt breached 200% of GDP, it was commonly due to deficit spending fueled by borrowing as nations prepared for and fought wars. To the victor went the spoils (and debt pay-downs) and to the loser went defeat and default.”

We are fixated on worldwide debt levels for one important reason: As more and more resources are pulled from future production and consumption capacity, lower long term potential growth rates are reduced. For example, if we use a standard financial calculation like a dividend discount valuation model , we see the following results:

On January 18th, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast by the most in three years. The world economy will grow 2.5 percent this year, down from a June estimate of 3.6 percent, the Washington-based institution said. The euro area may contract 0.3 percent, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.8 percent gain. The U.S. growth outlook was cut to 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent.
________________________________________________
1. Hayman Capital Management, L.P November 30, 2011 Newsletter
2. The formula for the dividend discount valuation model:
(Dividend Payout)/(Required Rate of Return-(GDP Growth+Inflation))

Click Here to Download the PDF Version

BeManaged Holiday Hours

Written December 22nd, 2011 by
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We hope you are all getting ready for this fast approaching holiday season! And because we wanted to best prepare you for the upcoming weeks, we’d like to let you know what our support hours will be. We will be observing limited hours the following days:

- Friday, December 23 – 8:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT
- Monday, December 26 – Closed
- Friday, December 30 – 8:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT
- Monday, January 2 – Closed

We wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Happy Holidays!

The BeManaged Team

 

 

 

BeManaged December Newsletter – Unemployment Rate Voodoo and Retirees’ Financial Health

Unemployment Rate Voodoo
Producers Continue to Leave the Labor Force

The announcement of a decline in the nation’s unemployment rate from 9.0% to 8.6% was treated gleefully in news headlines. Unfortunately, there is more to the story.

Over the past 60+ years, the number of people who are participating in the labor force grows an average of 4% – 5% every three years. Over the last three years, however, the civilian labor force has declined. This is the first decline over a three year period since statistics were first gathered in 1948.

If labor force participation rates grew at near normal levels from 2008 to the present, the calculated unemployment rate would probably exceed 13%.

Labor force growth affects economic growth, which eventually affects stock market prices. Caution remains the prudent course.

Housing Inventories Continue to Drop
This is a good thing!

Residential real estate values may have the largest single impact on the health of the United States consumer and the economy as a whole. Consumer spending typically represents two-thirds of total U.S. production; the wealth effect of rising (or falling) home prices weighs heavily on consumer attitudes.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), inventories of existing homes continue to slide, though at a snail’s pace. As inventories fall, prices may begin to stabilize. Price stability in the housing market will attract investment from those seeking exposure to the tangible asset.

Although we are nowhere near the long term historical average for housing inventories, it is, among other things, an encouraging sign that we are inching ever closer to a balanced inventory. We should applaud this drop in inventory as a sign of continued digestion by the market of its former housing binge.

Retirees’ Financial Health
A Snaphot

There is no question the financial upheaval in recent years has impacted the behavior of investors across the board. From private equity funds to retirement investing, strategies have changed to accommodate the ever evolving financial landscape.

In a study conducted by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), LIMRA, and the International Foundation for Retirement Education (InFRE), individual retirees were questioned in three consecutive surveys to gauge the degree to which the financial crisis has affected their investment behavior. The survey was issued prior to the financial crisis of 2008, in April of 2009, and again in the summer of 2011, and as a result it captured the change in sentiment during these unique times.

The results of this study show a recovery in the level of confidence retirees have in regards to the amount of savings accrued  for comfortable retirement living. Only 25% of retirees polled in 2009 were “very confident” they had enough money to live comfortably along with 54% who were “somewhat confident.” In 2011, the percentage of those who were “very confident” rose to 31% as well as 54% for those who are “somewhat confident.”

Perhaps the most encouraging among the changes in retiree behavior is the drop in the amount of household debt. Roughly 35% more households claim to hold absolutely no debt at all as a result of the ongoing financial crises. This data bodes well for a healthier consumer base in our consumer driven economy.

To conclude the study, retirement investors continue to remove risk from the table. Few can question the motivation behind such a trend as “risk” has become an exceptional foe to stable returns as of late. However, confidence levels are up among retirees and as a result we would expect to see spending levels creep back to pre-recession levels.

Nonetheless, a more conservative approach to retirement finances should help cushion retirees from financial losses in the event of a second recession. It is encouraging to see proactive measures being taken to combat future uncertainty.

Click Here to Download the PDF Version

BeManaged November Newsletter – The European Debacle Continues

The European Debacle Continues

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” – Mark Twain

The European saga continues! In the final weeks of October, the European Union constructed a bailout package to save Greece from almost certain default. Markets around the world cheered the news as a sign of hope for the debt crisis in Europe.

Unfortunately, jubilation was short lived as Greece’s acceptance of the measure was in jeopardy the following week with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou calling for a referendum. The markets, of course, reacted poorly to the news.

The important thing to understand is the uncertainty surrounding this situation. We cannot accurately predict the outcome of the debt crisis in Europe any more than we can predict the weather for next spring. Additional countries in the EU are poised to follow in the footsteps of Greece. Among those are the much larger economies of Italy and Spain.

Defense is the only offense moving forward. It’s likely the direction of these events will continue to change in the coming months. With new developments occurring daily, the best course of action is to sit and wait it out.

CEO Confidence 3rd Quarter 2011
A dismal confidence reading from top brass

The CEO Confidence indicator supplied by The Conference Board has fallen below 50 for the first time in two years. Confidence levels below 50 indicate a greater number of pessimistic views as opposed to those who are optimistic on future demand potential. The measure now stands at 42, down from 55 in the second quarter of 2011.

CEO optimism regarding short term economic conditions has fallen significantly in quarter three with respect to quarter two. In the previous reporting period, 43 percent of CEO’s polled felt economic conditions would improve in the following 6 months. In quarter three, that measure has fallen to just 19 percent. Additionally, expectations for their own industries were down sharply with only 22 percent expecting the business climate to improve in the coming months, down from 44 percent in the previous quarter.

The implications for these numbers speak highly to future economic conditions. Consumer and CEO confidence are often seen as leading indicators for economic growth prospects. Confidence levels influence both spending and capital investment behavior within corporations. With decreasing confidence we should not expect meaningful increases in payroll or capital investments moving forward.

Health Savings Account: A guide to liability investing – The Layer Strategy

A Healthcare Savings Account (HSA) acts very much like a hybrid between your normal everyday checking account and a long term retirement savings account. As such, your HSA account should be treated like both a retirement investment account (IRA, 401K) and a checking account from which you draw cash to pay for medical expenses. Because of this dual nature, money placed under the HSA umbrella must be allocated to the appropriate investment vehicles (bonds, stocks and cash) and in the appropriate allocation amounts.

Layer Strategy Explained: The “layer” strategy is intended to layer your account with differing levels of risk using vehicles representative of differing risk levels.

Layer one: Because you will be drawing upon this account to pay for medical expenditures, it is important to maintain a layer of easily accessible cash equal to your yearly deductible plus any additional expenses you may incur. In order to do this, you want to place money into a cash account or a cash equivalent account. Vehicles appropriate for this would be bond funds with limited duration* or money market funds.

Layer two: The funds invested in layer two under the HSA umbrella will be used for purposes different to those of layer one. Because these funds will not be drawn upon for medical expenses, the funds can be put to work earning you a small return on your investment. However, accurately predicting medical expenses for the coming years is nearly impossible. Due to these circumstances we must maintain an appropriate level of security when choosing these investment vehicles as this money may need to be accessed in the event of exorbitant medical expenses. Vehicles exhibiting the proper risk levels include bond funds with longer durations along with some equity investments.

Layer three: In layer three, we can make the assumption you have already appropriately cushioned yourself against excess medical expenses and have some left over funds available for a more aggressive investing strategy. This money can be put to work in longer term bond funds and domestic equity funds to capture the risk return rewards available in the market.

*      Duration is a statistical measure which typically attempts to estimate the potential sensitivity of a fixed income portfolio to changes in interest rates.

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7 Lies We Tell Ourselves About Saving Money (Video)

Written October 31st, 2011 by
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Recently, I have had some interesting conversations that centered around how we talk ourselves out of saving money. Simply put, we tell ourselves little lies we make up in our head. We end up talking about how we spend money, as if we manage that, saving it is easy. Let’s face it, it’s much more fun to buy something than it is to save, but we all understand there needs to be a balance. Here are some common lies about saving money from an article I find to be very common:

 

  1. I can only save a little bit, so it’s not worth it. Any savings adds up over time, just as spending does. For example, add up how much you have spent on little things like fast food, lattes, etc. on a system like Mint.com. Imagine if you saved half of that…it adds up when you take into account the compounding affects of a 401k. Even adding 1%-2% more in savings makes a big difference, especially if you have 15 years or more before you plan to retire.
  2. I’ll START saving money when I make more money. Just remember, it’s not how much you make, it’s how much you save. I have met with numerous individuals that have larger balances in their accounts than people who make 3-5 times more. It’s about spending less than you make, and then making the most of what you save. Waiting to make more money simply delays the process, and this excuse usually results in finding other ways to spend that raise once you get it.
  3. If I earned more money it would be EASIER to save. Sure, it could be easier, but only assuming that you save it and don’t spend it. Saving money is often the result of understanding what you are spending. Get a handle on your spending using a tool like Mint.com, as it can illustrate where you are spending money that you might be overlooking. It constantly surprises me in my personal spending habits.  
  4. I want to be a good parent, so I need to give money to my kids now so they can have a better life. Not at all true. I know many people who had everything they could have asked for as a kid but have a poor relationship. Bottom line, love your kids (and make sure they know it) while modeling financial responsibility and you could end up with happy kids that may understand the value of a dollar. A better life is about having love in our lives, not what material possessions we have. Ok, I’m getting off my soapbox.
  5. I can always get a loan if things go wrong. Danger! Creating an emergency fund is a vital portion of a financial plan. It’s boring, and meant to be. Keep it in a money market/savings account because everyone needs a ‘tomorrow bucket of money’ just in case. Personal loans? It is a difficult conversation to have with a bank, family, etc. with absolutely no guarantee of receiving it. 
  6. Saving money is all about deprivation.  It’s about responsibility, not deprivation. While I do not recommend ‘depriving’ yourself or your family, I do recommend re-evaluating what we perceive that we need. Depriving means we do not have what we need…but do we really need that latte, pair of shoes for that outfit or new DVD?
  7. Saving money means cutting out all the small fun stuff. Not at all. Just buy less of it and treat yourself every once in a while. I find that I appreciate “treats” more when I do not purchase them as often…or find that I don’t really need/want it in the first place.
We need to understand that money and how we spend it is a highly emotional situation for many people. We constantly justify or simply act on impulse. I used to be a highly impulsive consumer, but have learned to stop and think (at least I am better now than I was) before buying what I think I need/want. Take a look at your spending habits, which directly affect your ability to save, by monitoring it via a tool like Mint.com. Here’s a great little video from our friend Carl at BehaviorGap.com about understanding the emotion of wanting versus needing: 

IRS Contribution Limits for 2012

Today the IRS posted the 2012 retirement plan limits, and for the first time since 2009, they are increasing! The new limits are as follows:

  • Elective Deferrals for 401k/403b/457: $17,000 (increased from $16,500 in 2011)
  • Catch-Up Contributions for 401k/403b/457: Remains at $5,500
  • Annual Compensation: $250,000 (increased from $245,000 in 2011)
  • Annual Additions Limit for Defined Contribution Plans: $50,000 (increased from $49,000)
  • Highly Compensated Employees: $115,000 (increased from $110,000)
  • Key Employee: $165,000 (increased from $160,000)
  • Social Security Wage Base: $110,000 (increased from $106,800)
For those that are seeking to max out their savings, this year provides you just a little more room. That’s good, as you cannot save too much for retirement. 

BeManaged October Newsletter: 3rd Quarter Ends on Down Note

The following topics are covered in this month’s Research Newsletter from the BeManaged Research Department.

  • 5 Straight Months of Decline for the S&P 500
  • Economic Cycle Research Institute

 

 

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BeManaged September Newsletter: World Markets Fall Again

The following topics are covered in this month’s Research Newsletter from the BeManaged Research Department.

  • 4 Straight Months of Decline for the S&P 500
  • 5 Yr Gains on Bonds Significantly Outpace Stock Returns
  • Older Workers: Who’s Working?

 

 

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